Making Capital Investment Decisions 資本投資決策
Project Cash Flows 專案現金流量
To evaluate a proposed investment, we must consider these changes in firm’s cash flow and then decide whether or not they add value to the firm. The first step is to decide which cash flows are relevant and which are not.
Relevant cash flows (incremental cash flows)is the difference between a firm’s future cash flows with a project and those without a project. The incremental cash flows of a project is consist of any and all changes in the firms’ future cash flows that are direct consequence if taking the project. 專案的攸關現金流量就是指那些因為接受該專案，而導致公司整體未來現金流量的變動量。定義為現金流量的變動量或增加量，也被稱為專案的增額現金流量。
Stand-alone principleis the assumption that evaluation of a project may be based on the project’s incremental cash flows. 獨立原則是在說，一旦決定了某項專案的增額現金流量，就可以把該專案視為一個「迷你公司」，該專案有它自己的未來收益和成本、資產以及現金流量。其重點是，評估某項專案完全根據該專案的相關資料，與公司的其他業務或專案完全獨立。
Incremental Cash Flows 增額現金流量
When defining whether some cash flows are incremental cash flows, there are some mistakes that are easy to make.
Sunk costsis the cost that has already been incurred and cannot be recouped and therefore should not be considered in an investment decision. 沉入成本是指已經支付或已經發生且日後必須償付的成本。不受今天專案決策的影響而改變。所以，沉入成本必須排除在專案的分析外。
Opportunity costis the most valuable alternatives that is given up if a particular investment is undertaken. 機會成本（opportunity cost）是我們必須放棄的既有利益。例如:可能想把幾年前以$100,000 購買的一幢老舊棉花廠翻修成一幢公寓。應該計入此公寓專案的機會成本是這個棉花廠目前的市價（扣除所有銷售成本之後），因為，這個金額才是繼續擁有它所須放棄的金額。
Erosion is the cash flow of a new project that come at the expense of a firm’s existing project. 公司的投資影響原有的銷售。專案的增額現金流量包括公司未來現金流量的所有變動量。
Net working capitalmight be increased because that a new project will require firm in additional long-term assets. Also, we will not include the interest paid or any other financing costsuch as dividends or principle repaid because we only want to see the cash flows generated by the assets of the project.進行專案時，通常需要隨時保留一些現金在手邊，以支應相關的費用。專案開始後需投入資金在存貨和應收帳款上。這些餘額就是淨營運資金的投資。在分析投資專案時，要將利息或其他融資成本，像發放股利或是償還本金排除在專案分析外。因為，我們的重點放在專案資產所帶來的現金流量。
Pro-Forma Financial Statements 預估財務報表與專案現金流量
Pro-forma financial statementsare financial statements projecting future years’ operating.
Project Cash Flow= Project OCF – Project change in NWC – Project Capital Spending
Project OCF= EBIT + Depreciation – Taxes
舉例：例子 假設每年銷售50,000 罐單價為$4 的鯊魚引餌，製造成本是$2.50，新產品通常只有三年壽命。對此產品的投資，要求20% 的報酬。固定成本，每年須花費$12,000。必須投資$90,000 在製造設備上。其將在三年的專案年限內完全折舊完畢。到時不具任何價值。專案期初必須投入$20,000 在淨營運資金上。公司稅率為34%。
專案的NPV 為：
NPV＝－$110,000＋51,780/1.2＋51,780/1.22＋71,780/1.23＝$10,648
我們求出IRR 大約是25.8%。專案的還本期間（大約是2.1 年）。
AAR 是平均淨利除以平均帳面價值。$21,780/65,000＝33.51%。因為AAR＞IRR，說明了AAR 並不是一個有意義的報酬率。
Tax Shield Approach: OCF = (Sales-Cost)*(1-T)+Depreciation*T
Depreciation tax shieldis the tax saving that results from the depreciation deduction. Calculated as depreciation multiplied by the corporate tax rate.
稅盾法（tax shield approach）的OCF 定義為：
OCF＝(銷貨－成本)×(1－T)＋折舊×T
第一部份未考慮折舊時的專案現金流量。
第二部份是折舊乘以稅率，稱為折舊稅盾（depreciation tax shield）。
Cash flow = Cash inflow – Cash outflow
現金流入＝銷貨收入-應收帳款變動
現金流出＝銷貨成本-應付賬款變動
Accelerated Cost Recovery System(ACRS): Depreciation method under U.S. tax law allowing for the accelerate write-off of property under various classification.
Modified ACRS Depreciation: MACRS 的基本概念是將各項資產歸類。資產的類別係根據耐用年限來分類。一旦資產的稅負年限決定後，把該資產的成本乘上一個固定百分比，就得到每一年的折舊金額。
Scenario Analyses 情境分析
Scenario analysesis the determination of what happens to net present value estimates when we ask what-if questions.
Sensitive analysisis investigation of what happens to NPV when only one variable is changed.
Additional Considerations 其他考量因素
Marginal Optionsis opportunities that managers can exploit if certain things happen in the future.
Contingency Planningis taking into account the managerial options implicit in a project.
Strategic options are options for future, related business products or strategies.
Capital Rationing 資本配額
Capital Rationing is the situation that exists if a firm has positive NPV projects but cannot obtain the necessary financing.
軟性配額：只出現暫時性的資源有限，通常自行承擔
硬性配額：這個計劃永遠不可能獲得資金
面臨軟性配額的情況，獲利指數PI是個有用的決策準則