LAS VEGAS (AP) – The Stanley Cup Final is so near to being a tossup, Florida would likely be preferred if the Panthers had home-ice benefit.
But that edge comes from Edmonton, which mainly discusses why the Oilers are minor favorites to win the series, which starts Wednesday.
“However you wish to look at this pie, you might make an argument that either group could be preferred,” Caesars Sportsbook head of hockey Karry Shreeve stated. “Home ice is absolutely playing a part. You’re simply playing the percentages. The team that wins Game 1 of the Stanley Cup, they go on to win approximately 75% of the time.”
BetMGM Sportsbook notes the Oilers as -130 favorites to win Game 1 and take that important 1-0 series lead. The sportsbook makes Edmonton as the -125 favorite to end up being the very first Canadian team because Montreal in 1993 to hoist the Stanley Cup.
Defending champion Florida, which beat Edmonton in seven video games in 2015, is the +105 underdog.
BetMGM trading supervisor Christian Cipollini stated about 55% of the cash has been available in on the Oilers.
Edmonton Oilers’ Connor McDavid (97) talks to media during a news conference, Tuesday, June 3, 2025, in Edmonton, Alberta, ahead of Game 1 of the NHL hockey Stanley Cup last series versus the Florida Panthers. (Jason Franson/The Canadian Press by means of AP)
“I would anticipate that to most likely continue,” Cipollini said. “I think we’ll probably take a bit more Oilers cash even if of Connor McDavid, however this is a rematch. Florida won in 2015, so I believe we will end up getting an even forecast.”
Hockey handicapper Alex B. Smith, who co-hosts The Ice Guys podcast, doesn’t purchase the Oilers need to be favored.
“You do not see rematches frequently in the Cup Final,” Smith said. “When you do, you constantly ask yourself the obvious question: Are these two groups much better or even worse than they were in 2015? I ‘d state Florida is a much better variation of themselves from last year. Edmonton (is) somewhat worse than last year, especially when you take a look at no Zach Hyman offered for this series. Connor Brown is returning for Game 1, however how healthy is he going to be?
“I offer the edges to Florida based off of they have actually been playing better, sound defense. I think they’re a tighter group than they were in 2015.”
Edmonton’s captain became the 2nd skater and sixth gamer to be granted the Conn Smythe Trophy as the playoffs MVP last season while playing on the losing group.
McDavid leads this postseason in scoring with 26 points, one ahead of colleague Leon Draisaitl, and is the +100 preferred at BetMGM to win the Conn Smythe, giving him a possibility to make more history even if the Panthers win.
“Are they really going to offer McDavid Conn Smythes in losing efforts?” Cipollini asked. “He is the preferred since of the points scored and there’s already a precedent that they might offer it to him here, however that’s something to view as the video games start. If there is a Florida player that isn’t really standing apart … there is a genuine world where it could be him again in a losing effort.”
Oilers goalie Stuart Skinner has long been seen as a weak point on the roster, a track record that seemed sealed when he was benched two games into the playoffs.
But Skinner is a significant factor Edmonton is still playing. He has permitted one or zero goals in five of his past 7 starts, three of them nothings.
Another excellent run in the internet might put Skinner, noted +3500 at BetMGM, in position to win the Conn Smythe.
“I would not have actually told you this was sustainable previously,” Smith stated of Skinner’s hot play. “Now, with one series left, it definitely is sustainable.”
Florida is making its 3rd successive look in the Stanley Cup Final, another deep run in which fatigue might lastly reach the Panthers. Or they could merely be on a heating system having actually won 10 of their previous 11 playoff series.
Shreeve said the metrics point to a Panthers championship and though either outcome would be fine with Caesars, a Florida success would be better.
“I don ´ t hate where we ´ re at with this one,” Shreeve stated. “In 2015 was a bit tougher because more people liked Florida, however individuals are everything about Edmonton this postseason, which I like.”
Because this series apparently could go in either case and Oklahoma City is greatly preferred over Indiana in the NBA Finals, that could increase betting interest in the Stanley Cup Final.
“I think it assists the NBA is getting the less sexier matchup,” Shreeve said. “The more bettable series is going to be Edmonton-Florida. If things remain tight, it has a possibility to go 6 or 7 games, which would assist.”
AP NHL playoffs: https://apnews.com/hub/stanley-cup and https://apnews.com/hub/nhl
Edmonton Oilers’ Leon Draisaitl (29) and Connor McDavid (97) participate in practice, Tuesday, June 3, 2025, in Edmonton, Alberta, ahead of Game 1 of the NHL hockey Stanley Cup final series versus the Florida Panthers. (Jason Franson/The Canadian Press through AP)
FILE – Florida Panthers forward Aleksander Barkov raises the Stanley Cup after beating the Edmonton Oilers in Game 7 of the NHL hockey Stanley Cup Final, Monday, June 24, 2024, in Sunrise, Fla. (Nathan Denette/The Canadian Press by means of AP, File)