貨幣期貨契約 currency futures contract載明某一貨幣在某一特定交割日，以某一特定標準數量進行外匯買賣的契約。所謂標準化，就是將交易標的物之品質、數量、交割日期與地點等要件在契約中訂清楚，以增加交易的方便性與時效性。
From the line chart we could see that the settlement price and the exchange rate have positive correlation. The disparity between two indexes include procedure fee and other procession cost.
1.Exchange rate:JPY/TWD=0.2762 TWD/JPY=3.6475
1.2 Variations of exchange rate
Followings are the charts of exchange rate with different length of time.
The range within a year is in between 3.5568 to 3.8421, the interest rate today is 3.6475 which is just little higher than the lowest point 3.8421.Japanese Yen has been appreciating since January 2018. If you want to go to Kyoto to enjoy the beauty of cherry blossom, it’s better to exchange for Yen before January this year or would be more “expensive “.
2.interest rate & variations
The followings are the chart and the table of Japan yields. The interest rates are included in the calculation of yields. The formula is:
Yield curve indicates how much return you get from lending money. From the chart, we could see it as two parts separated by the 7.5y time break. Before 7.5y the 1 month curve gets lowest yields than the other two which indicates lending money lately profits more than 1 month ago. Vice versa if you are lending for more than 7.5years. Also, from the table we could see that within 5 years the yields are negative. As we know the higher the yields are the cheaper the bonds would be vice versa. But what if the yields are negative? Negative yields implies negative interest rate:
In order to have a negative annual percentage yield, r/n should be negative and because n as the number of times is positive therefore r interest rate should be negative.
So why would anyone buy bonds whose interest rate is negative?
Well, the lenders in financial markets are usually banks, and if the lenders lose money the borrowers earn the spread. Japanese government hopes to boost the economy by setting negative interest rate as an incentive for investors to borrow money. These monetary policies are called quantitative easing.
Theoretically, quantitative easing should help stimulate bank loans and customer consumption. Nonetheless, enterprises show little interest in borrowing money since there aren’t many investing opportunities. The result of monetary policy seems to do little on Japan’s economy, the structural changes perhaps will be more useful.
3. Inflation rate and variations
The formula of inflation rate:
The rate of inflation formula measures the percentage change in purchasing power of a particular currency. As the cost of prices increase, the purchasing power of the currency decreases.
The rate of inflation formula shown uses the Consumer Price Index which is released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the US. However, other similar indices may be used at times.
Japan’s inflation rate averaged 3.02 percent from 1958 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 24.9 percent in 1974 and record low of -2.5 percent in 2009. Recently the inflation rate has risen by 1.4% the highest since 2016 though the number is still lower than the goal of Bank of Japan’s 2%.
The price of power source surged contributed mostly to the raise of CPI because the raise of the oil price lead to the the raise of electricity and gasoline price. During the same time, the price battles between communication service dealers gave the opposite on the index.
references: trading economics Bloomberg Finance formulas
Through CNBC: Burke Byer, Byer Metal CEO, and Scott Jones, Nova Metal president, talk about the potential effect on each the U.S. and Canadian economies in addition to their companies ought to President Trump enact the proposed metal and aluminum tariffs.
“We have been in international commerce struggle for years now that individuals are simply beginning to speak about, we have seen metal dumped of all different types and from all totally different international locations coming in at prices which might be simply not a good enjoying area for us domestically to have the ability to present sufficient margin to make use of folks and do what our business must do,” Byer, the American, mentioned.
The Canadian, Jones, mentioned that Trump’s tariff may create loads of “uncertainties” and will “damage each side.”
“The issue is metal getting shipped by boat, not by truck,” Jones mentioned. “The international locations Burke is attempting to decelerate: The Turks, the Taiwanese, and the Japanese, that is… a special a part of the financial system.”
The raise of steel import taxes by 25% and aluminum by 10% could not only damage the industries directly, but also construction firms like car makers who use raw materials.
Though Japan and EU are hoping to be excluded from new tariffs, Trump decided that the tariffs would be the best way to tackle overcapacity in metal industry and improve national security.
These are some consequences:
1.Though claiming the measures are directly to China,but in fact it’s affecting Canada, Japan, South Korea, which are allies of the U.S.
2.The import of metal surges because of the expectation of steel block.
U.S. as a member and founder of WTO, if the tariffs are surely to be executed, it will not be difficult to imagine how the contradiction would lead to a inner chaotic situation between member countries, but also opens Pandora’s box as other member nations are more likely to place external force among trade agreement as long as they have America as a pioneer example.
On the other hand, the U.S. steel company confirmed if the tariffs are to put into practice, it will surely be benefited. Futher, from the interview, the reaction of new tariffs from the Canadian steel firm seemed to be less intense than what media or public thought it would be. So maybe the tariff is not that bad after all.
video source: CNBC